by Roderick MacNeil
It’s been a minute since we’ve seen the United States play a match at the men’s World Cup — nearly 8 1/2 years to be more precise. The October 2017 failure to qualify for the 2018 edition left a deeply bitter taste that’s taken every bit of the last 5+ years to overcome. So what’s changed in the interim and what can we expect this time? Let’s dive in.
The top line overview: This is easily the most individually talented group the USMNT ever had. It’s also by a fair margin the youngest team of all 32 in Qatar (excluding goalkeepers.) This combination conspires to make it really difficult to appropriately peg expectations.
A full-on youth movement began after the 2018 debacle, and new coach Gregg Berhalter was eventually hired (following an absurdly long 14-month process, but more on him later.) The roster has turned over almost 100% since last cycle’s failure. The only core contributor still around is Christian Pulisic, a 19 year-old prodigy at the time, who has long since become the face of the team. Even if you’re a casual soccer fan that doesn’t follow the U.S. squad closely, you probably know of Pulisic. (Fullback DeAndre Yedlin, the only player on the current roster with previous World Cup experience, is also still here, but at 29 is now largely a rotational player.)
Historically, the U.S. has usually had maybe one or two guys shining professionally in Europe at any given time. Certainly there have been great goalkeepers, but this is different.
Today’s player pool features players all over the board featuring in UEFA Champions League, and doing it at massive clubs. This is very new territory:
- Pulisic (24), who wears the #10 jersey at Chelsea in the Premier League, is already only the 2nd American ever to *win* UEFA Champions League
- Weston McKennie (24) features in the heart of the midfield at Italian powerhouse Juventus
- Gio Reyna (19), offspring of former USMNT star Claudio Reyna and former USWNT player Danielle Egan, is a winger/playmaker at German super club Borussia Dortmund, and arguably the most technically skilled player on the team
- Sergiño Dest (21), a dynamic attacking fullback for AC Milan (after recently transferring from, uhh, Barcelona)
- Cameron Carter-Vickers (24), center back who wears the captain’s armband at Scottish giant Celtic FC
- plus a handful of others who didn’t even make the World Cup roster
There are also multiple others with starting roles in the English Premier League:
- Tyler Adams (23) and Brenden Aaronson (22) both feature prominently in Leeds United’s midfield
- Antonee Robinson (25) and Tim Ream (an “ancient” 35) play side-by-side on Fulham’s back line
- Matt Turner (28), though still a backup goalkeeper at this point, recently made a big move from New England to Arsenal
Others succeeding in prominent places:
- Timothy Weah (22), son of 1995 FIFA World Player of the Year and current *President of Liberia* George Weah, is a super talent at Lille who came up through Paris Saint-Germain’s youth system
- Yunus Musah (19), currently breaking out at Valencia in Spain’s La Liga
- Joe Scally (19), who quickly nailed down a starting role at Germany’s Borussia Monchengladbach after transferring from New York City FC
- Josh Sargent (22), Norwich City striker currently tied for the scoring lead in the English Championship (2nd division), has Premier League experience
- Haji Wright (24), currently tied for 2nd in scoring in the Turkish Super Lig
So what happened? Pulisic’s success opened more doors for American players in Europe to an extent. But a bigger thing that happened was, in part, the continued maturing of Major League Soccer’s youth academies, with the league also fully embracing being a selling league. The big money transfer of Canadian phenom Alphonso Davies from Vancouver to Bayern Munich in 2018 essentially opened the floodgates. Kids are now regularly getting signed in MLS at age 15-16, and flipped to big European clubs – in many cases while still teenagers. North America is now viewed abroad as an important place to scout for undervalued talent. College soccer isn’t dead, but the days of that being a significant development path to the National Team are long over. So it’s a very different world. The U.S. isn’t trotting out guys who turned pro at 22, and isn’t relying nearly as heavily on recruiting dual-nationals. A decade ago we did backflips if a 16 year-old German-American dual-national chose to represent the United States. Now there are so many U.S.-born-and-raised kids thriving in Europe that it’s barely noteworthy when it happens.
So how has this team looked as a unit? Good, but mixed and inconsistent. The good: beating Mexico 3 times last year – Gold Cup Final, Nations League Final, another Dos-A-Cero in World Cup Qualifying, and even earned a draw in Azteca earlier this year. On the other hand, they failed to beat Canada (granted, not your grandfather’s Canada) and eked through qualifying for Qatar. Additionally, the team rarely gets to measure itself outside the region these days. European teams are almost entirely unavailable for friendlies thanks to the Nations League, and the Confederations Cup doesn’t exist anymore. This team is fresh off a brutal September friendly loss to Japan and a listless draw vs Saudi Arabia, so the most recent data leans toward discouraging. But it’s also a mistake to read too much into warm-up friendlies, where there’s still a degree of experimentation going on.
I’m not sure what to make of Berhalter as a coach. He’s a system guy, and I respect that he’s got a certain way that he wants to play and is committed to it. He typically sets up a strict 4-3-3 with a lone striker and a high press. The attack runs through the team’s talented wingers, not utilizing a traditional #10 playmaker. They seek to be a possession-oriented team, but maybe there are times when they shouldn’t. It is what it is. Anyway, Berhalter has done what’s he’s supposed to do thus far within the region. But when your own brother drove your hiring process at U.S. Soccer, you’ve got skeptics from day one. There are also notable examples of well regarded players (by the fans, anyway) being frozen out because they don’t fit the coach’s preferred playing style. Exhibit A: center back John Brooks (of 2014 World Cup fame). Pure talent-wise, probably still the best CB in the pool, but he’s not been called in to the team in a long while, and isn’t in Qatar. That’s absolutely fair for a coach to do, but it had better work. To be fair, Brooks had a run of poor play for the U.S., and hasn’t played regularly anywhere in a long while, but the pool at the center back is both thin and injury-ravaged. Meanwhile, Nashville SC’s Walker Zimmerman figures to hold down one of the starting spots. The other remains a bit of a wildcard.
Striker, as always seems to be the case, is a huge question mark. There’s no one who’s clearly distinguished himself as *the* guy, and it’s another position where some deserving players aren’t in the mix. Jordan Pefok, starting striker at Union Berlin, one of the top clubs in the Bundesliga this season, was a fan favorite who didn’t make the roster. 19 year-old Ricardo Pepi was the team’s second leading scorer throughout qualifying, but he’s also not here. Wright was a surprise addition despite his gaudy statistics in Turkey this season, as he just made his U.S. senior debut in June. Sargent had been out of favor for an extended period. However, the probable top choice starter is Jesus Ferreira (21) from FC Dallas. Ferreira is certainly a talented player that may soon graduate to bigger things professionally, but his club resume pales in comparison to date.
Other issues stem from Qatar 2022 itself. Aside from every non-soccer reason that’s problematic about the host nation and the circumstances that got us here, we’ve got this screwball winter schedule. Club play didn’t pause until literally the week before the tournament. Late injuries are proving to be a rampant problem. In prior World Cups, players would typically have heavy legs following a full pro season, but at least there was a modicum of opportunity to rest and mend from minor injuries. Several of the most critical attacking players for the U.S. have a history of muscle injuries (Pulisic, Reyna, Weah). There’s still lingering doubt about whether McKennie and Dest are fit enough to start. But fingers crossed, the squad seems to have avoided any significant late injuries.
Now, taking a quick glance at Group B: England, USA, Iran, Wales. Clearly one these is not like the others in terms of international pedigree. Each of the latter three looks at the other two as very winnable games. Yet it’s a problematic group for England on an intangible level – the narratives and emotions attached to playing both the U.S. and Wales rise to the level of distraction. Additionally – and FIFA rankings should always be taken with a grain of salt – it’s also the sneakily the most competitive group top-to-bottom, with an average ranking of 15.0 (ENG 5, USA 16, WAL 19, IRN 20). There’s no indisputable #2 in the group, but there’s also no true tourist team.
Game 1 – 11/21 vs. Wales: The U.S. must win this game, it’s really that simple. Find a way. (A draw isn’t a death sentence, but it makes things very difficult.) Can Berhalter get this young team emotionally prepared for the moment from the opening whistle? This is Wales’ first World Cup match in 64 years – that team will be buzzing from kickoff. Withstand the first wave and find the game. Once the games settles, Wales will presumably be sitting in a low block, let the U.S. dominate possession, and look to strike quickly on the counter. Gareth Bale may not have much left in the tank, but he’ll leave it on E for Wales… don’t ever forget where he is on the pitch.
Game 2 – 11/25 vs. England: 2:00pm ET on Black Friday, are you kidding me? Largest U.S. WC audience ever, and it won’t be close. The U.S. has historically raised its level for the occasion vs. England, and expect nothing less this time around. A draw here would be a great result and put the team on course for the knockout round. A close loss is fine, provided the first game went well…
Game 3 – 11/29 vs. Iran: If this match becomes must-win or requires scoreboard watching, I’d be very worried. I don’t know a lot about Iran’s players (few people outside of Iran really do), but they’re the best team in Asia for a reason. They defend well as a group, are a capable of punishing you on the counter, and will be difficult to break down if you fall behind. They’re also playing extremely close to home and should have the crowd in their favor. Underestimate them at your own peril. If a draw is enough for the U.S. here, they’ll get exactly that.
Final Takeaway: I’ll be disappointed if the U.S. doesn’t advance, because on paper, they should. Anything beyond that is house money. The more pragmatic view is that this is a build-up to hosting in 2026, when this core is in its prime and has even more depth. But a run this year is certainly possible. It’s a very young team, yet there’s a professional maturity that belies that youth. The core of this team has already succeeded on the world’s biggest professional stages and individually at least, won’t be star-struck by the World Cup spotlight. The questions are whether A) the coaching staff gets the tactics right, and B) whether all that individual talent is ready to put it all together as a group.
I’m optimistically pegging the U.S. for 5 points, 2nd place in the group. They figure it out with 3 points vs Wales, earn a heroic point vs England, and survive an ugly draw in the finale vs Iran. That likely sets a path to face the Netherlands in the Round of 16, where they hang in for a while, but ultimately succumb. But the future is bright.
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