Seven of these faces won’t be smiling on June 2.
by Roderick MacNeil
Jurgen Klinsmann’s much anticipated 30-man Preliminary Roster, unveiled earlier this week, has convened in Northern California for an extended pre-World Cup training camp. From that exclusive group, only 23 will emerge to make the Final Roster.
There were some surprises in the 30-man group: Defender Timothy Chandler, who hasn’t appeared in a USMNT match since February 2013, and midfielder Joe Corona, who hasn’t seen the field since an August 2013 substitute appearance vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina, both add intrigue and deepen the competition in training camp.
The most notable omission by far was Eddie Johnson, who was the team’s second-leading goalscorer throughout World Cup Qualifying. His absence may provide clues about other players’ chances at the final roster. More on that later. Others that figured prominently in qualifying that missed the cut: midfielders Sacha Kljestan and Brek Shea, defender Michael Orozco, along with the recently surging forward Juan Agudelo.
The final selections also featured a nod towards youth, as 18-year-old Julian Green, 20-year-old DeAndre Yedlin, and 21-year-old John Brooks all made the first cut.
Another significant group in camp: a trio of players who returned to Major League Soccer with the explicit purpose of improving their chances at making the World Cup: Maurice Edu, Michael Parkhurst and Clarence Goodson. So far, so good, for all three.
With all this in mind, let’s break down the roster and locate key positional battles that will determine who goes home on June 2, and who finds a seat on the plane to Sao Paulo:
LOCKS
First let’s get the automatic rock-solid locks out of the way. These are players believed, barring injury, to be virtually assured (>90% likely) of a place on the final 23-man World Cup roster. Jurgen Klinsmann hasn’t given any assurances, but I’ll give them mine. Any of these players being left off the final roster would be an utterly shocking development. Fifteen (15) Players fall into this category. Goalkeepers are in ranked order; the rest in alphabetical order by primary USMNT roster position:
Goalkeepers:
1. Tim Howard (Everton) – The unquestioned starter in goal, Howard’s leadership & experience are invaluable.
2. Brad Guzan (Aston Villa) – Ready to step in if called upon, Guzan’s time will come soon enough.
3. Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake) – The best MLS has to offer, reaches his first World Cup at age 34.
Defenders:
4. DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla FC) – A fixture at left back throughout qualifying, a key veteran presence and likely starter.
5. Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City) – After Howard & Bradley, perhaps the most secure member of the Starting XI. Besler’s been very impressive.
6. Geoff Cameron (Stoke City) – Starter or substitute, defense or midfield, Cameron will play a role.
7. Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy) – Apparent starter, needs to show more, but his place is not in doubt.
8. Fabian Johnson (Hoffenheim 1899) – Potential starter in at least three different positions; will see plenty of minutes.
Midfielders:
9. Alejandro Bedoya (FC Nantes) – A Klinsmann favorite, will be among the first off the bench.
10. Michael Bradley (Toronto FC) – The engine, the key to it all. USMNT success demands a strong Bradley World Cup.
11. Jermaine Jones (Besiktas) – Part of JK’s “spine,” a starting role in central midfield is his to lose.
12. Graham Zusi (Sporting Kansas City) – Pencil him into the starting right midfield role. Nah, write it in ink.
Forwards:
13. Jozy Altidore (Sunderland) – Clean slate after a rough EPL campaign. He’s the man up top, and rightfully so.
14. Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders FC) – Remember when people were worried about Clint Dempsey?
15. Landon Donovan (LA Galaxy) – Looking like less the guaranteed starter once thought, but he’s too valuable to leave home. Still a difference maker.
FAVORITES
The next group of players are those believed very likely (>75%) to make the final roster. Some are nearer to the “Lock” category than others. The omission of any of these players would be unexpected, but perhaps not entirely shocking. Three (3) players fall into this category, again, listed alphabetically by position:
Defender:
16. Clarence Goodson (San Jose Earthquakes) – As near to the “Lock” category as could be. Center back depth is thin and he’s been a consistent part of the rotation. If John Brooks were ready, Goodson might be looking over his shoulder. Not yet.
Midfielder:
17. Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake) – Impressed in extended starting minutes in both the Gold Cup and numerous friendlies; has earned JK’s confidence. Maurice Edu will push him, but not enough to threaten his place on the roster.
Forward:
18. Aron Johannsson (AZ Alkmaar) – Conventional wisdom says he’s a lock. I’m not convinced the separation he’s created on the depth chart is as large as most observers believe. Still, he would be a surprising exclusion. The effort to get AJ to switch from Iceland to the U.S. had 2014 well in mind.
PROBABLES
These are the players who are in strong position (>60% likely) to make the final roster, but still face substantial competition in training camp. The exclusion of these players would be somewhat unexpected, but still entirely possible. Two (2) players fall into this category:
Defenders:
19. Brad Evans (Seattle Sounders FC) – Klinsmann’s first choice right back for nearly a full year now. He’s going to Brazil and probably starts. Increased competition in camp raises some eyebrows, but he’ll get the nod. The argument against Evans typically boils down to this: He plays in MLS (in contrast to competitors in the EPL & Bundesliga) and he plays midfield for his club. Yet those two facts are not a problem to Klinsmann. Then consider this fact: Ever since Evans’ first USMNT start (last June vs. Germany), Klinsmann has never selected another player ahead of a healthy Evans. That’s not a band-aid solution, it’s a clear preference.
20. Michael Parkhurst (Columbus Crew) – Versatile, experienced, and has featured regularly. He brings too much to the table to ignore. He can play anywhere across the back line. On a roster that values players who can play different positions, Parkhurst has a place.
BUBBLES
These are the last few players on the Final 23-man Roster. They are only slightly better than 50% likely to make the cut. The exclusion of any of these players would not be greatly surprising, as the competition is close with those on the wrong side of the bubble. Three (3) players fall into this category:
Midfielders:
21. Mix Diskerud (Rosenborg BK) – Makes the roster largely based upon the lack of depth at his position, despite concerns over reduced club minutes in Norway. However, there’s a glaring need for a player capable of backing up Michael Bradley. Mix isn’t truly the ideal answer, but he’s been serviceable and is the best suited of any player on the roster to step in and provide a creative presence. He’ll be pushed by Joe Corona in camp, but there’s a reason why Diskerud has been such a consistent call-up under Klinsmann. I’ve been down on Mix lately, but it’s become increasingly clear that he fills an important need.
22. Julian Green (Bayern Munich II) – The effort to land Green *now* wasn’t for naught. He’s going to the World Cup barring a disastrous camp. Perhaps he was unofficially promised a roster spot, perhaps not. What we do know is that Green possesses a skill set that no one else in the current player pool can replicate. He’s far from a finished product, but his talent is significant enough to be a difference maker in Brazil, even as a substitute. The team will benefit both now and in the future by having him around this summer.
Forward:
23. Terrence Boyd (Rapid Vienna) – Boyd’s World Cup chances were left for dead a couple of months ago, and I didn’t disagree at the time. Three significant developments have since changed the equation in Boyd’s favor: 1) First and foremost, he elevated his level of club play tremendously, scoring 6 times in his last 4 games, totaling 20 on the season; 2) The elimination of Eddie Johnson from the roster leaves Boyd as the most likely backup to Jozy Altidore: a target forward who utilizes his size and strength to maintain possession, and whose presence occupies defenders and opens up space for Clint Dempsey & Co.; 3) Landon Donovan, viewed as a forward, marginalizes the value of Chris Wondolowski. If Donovan isn’t a starter and your need off the bench is a poacher who can score goals with savviness and smart positioning, then Donovan is always your choice over Wondo. Therefore, Boyd’s skill set is a more valuable and distinct asset, and Wondolowski is unfortunately out.
CUTS
These players are less than 50% likely to make it to Brazil. Nearly all are in close battles to make the final roster. Seven (7) players fall in this category, and thusly, are the ones I expect to be sent home on June 2:
24. Chris Wondolowski, Forward (San Jose Earthquakes) – Wondo is probably the most difficult cut to make. You could easily argue that he’s earned a spot, and it seems he’s done everything asked of him. He’s scored goals consistently for both club and country, the latter of which isn’t something that fellow forwards Johannsson and Boyd can claim. Nonetheless, the roster calculus works against him, as pointed out above regarding Terrence Boyd.
25. Maurice Edu, Midfielder (Philadelphia Union) – His return to MLS has done wonders for his candidacy to even make it this far. He needs a strong camp and could certainly impress enough to edge somebody out. Unfortunately for Edu, it looks like that person would have to be Kyle Beckerman, who at this point is downright entrenched in the midfield rotation. Edu’s versatility is a plus; he can slide into central defense if called upon, but that’s not a large enough need to punch his ticket. He’s third on the depth chart at CDM, and there are already five others on the roster who can play center back. It’d be great to have Mo around, but there just isn’t room.
26. Timothy Chandler, Defender (FC Nurnberg) -This is also among the more difficult cuts. Chandler has a cult following among USMNT supporters, and with good reason. He’s a regular starter at a Bundesliga club, and as an attacking fullback with speed, is probably the ideal fit for Jurgen Klinsmann’s style of play. If only it were that simple. Chandler hasn’t made an appearance with the national team in over 15 months. Regardless of the reasons, it’s difficult to insert a player into your lineup into such an important position at this late a date who hasn’t been part of your team for so long. There are also injury concerns. Chandler just returned from a torn meniscus suffered in February. A year ago he tore a knee ligament. Is he reliably healthy enough to take up a valuable roster spot? I view Chandler’s 2014 candidacy as one of hope, but not one of reality.
27. Brad Davis, Midfielder (Houston Dynamo) – If the roster had room for a specialist, I’d take Brad Davis in a heartbeat. You can’t mention his name without including a reference to his left foot and quality set piece service. That’s not enough to get him to Brazil. Whether it’s Graham Zusi, Michael Bradley or Landon Donovan on the ball, I’m comfortable that set pieces are in good hands. The clincher in Davis’s exclusion is the arrival of Julian Green. If Green is going, Davis is not. There isn’t room for both.
28. Joe Corona, Midfielder (Club Tijuana) – Corona’s path to the final roster comes via beating out Mix Diskerud. If Mix comes in and has a poor camp, there’s an opportunity for Corona. If total appearances and minutes over the past year are an indication of Klinsmann’s preference, you would conclude Diskerud is higher on the depth chart, and there isn’t much recent evidence to suggest Corona’s been able to change that. I’m left with the impression that Corona is here to provide some level of competition, but that it’s Diskerud’s spot to lose.
29. DeAndre Yedlin, Defender (Seattle Sounders FC) – I don’t subscribe to the theory that Yedlin is just here for the experience with a look towards 2018. Certainly that’s a side benefit, but make no mistake, Yedlin is here because Klinsmann believes he can win a roster spot. That said, he seems a long shot this time around. There’s an argument to be made that Yedlin’s speed, youth and fitness could prove valuable off the bench, particularly in the high humidity expected in Manaus. The image of him chasing down Cristiano Ronaldo is an intriguing one, to be sure. Yedlin’s game is deeper than that and has evolved considerably since making his MLS debut, but the sense here is that 2014 isn’t his time yet. He’d likely have to beat out both Brad Evans and Timothy Chandler and he only plays one position (so far?), so that’s hard to foresee. His time is soon, but not now.
30. John Brooks, Defender (Hertha Berlin) – Brooks is another player I wrote off in March after a dismal performance against Ukraine. A return to regular starting club minutes, and more importantly, an impressive level of play, earned Brooks an invitation to camp. “Potential” is still the most apt word that comes to mind with Brooks, as he’s a player that projects to be a fixture of the USMNT central defense for many years to come. But it would still take an extraordinarily dominant camp performance to make the final roster. There’s a lot to like about Brooks’ game, but it’s still difficult to feel comfortable depending on him at the international level, much less against the likes of Portugal and Germany.
One thing is very clear looking at this 30-man roster, along with the players who didn’t make it to Stanford: Jurgen Klinsmann has succeeded in cultivating a deeper pool of players than the USMNT has ever seen before. The competition at each position is strong, and that can only be a good thing going forward. Whichever 23 men suit up this summer, each one will have earned his spot. There are many legitimate concerns to discuss ahead of this year’s World Cup, but complacency is not among them.